This year we have already resolved problematic loans worth 7 million euros. Over the platform’s 12-year history, a total of 70 million euros has been recovered from defaulted loans. The pace of recovery depends on a range of factors, such as the economic environment, the liquidity of the property market, developer activity, financing availability, and how well local court systems and regulations function. Naturally, these vary from country to country.

Below, we give an overview of how the recovery of problematic loans is progressing across our different markets as of mid-2026.

By the end of June, a total of 952 million euros had been lent through the Estateguru platform, of which 78 percent, or 744 million, has already been repaid. In the process, investors have earned 99 million euros.

[Statistics: end of June 2026]

How Estateguru’s markets are grouped

Estateguru’s markets fall into three groups: active markets, where we issue new loans; inactive markets, where we focus solely on recovering the existing portfolio; and closed markets, where all loans have been repaid.

Today, new loans are issued through the platform in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (and, through refinancing, in Portugal). Since 2023, when we received our European crowdfunding service provider licence from the Estonian Financial Supervision Authority, we have focused specifically on the Baltic markets, which we know best. We also have our own local teams in all three countries. Since then, 275 million euros has been financed through the platform, of which 97 percent has either been fully repaid or is being repaid in line with the agreed terms. This reflects our focus on credit quality and disciplined risk assessment.

[Statistics: end of June 2026]

For loans issued in the Baltics since 2023, the weighted average loan-to-value (LTV) ratio is 54.1 percent and the weighted average interest rate is 9.96 percent.

Our inactive markets are Finland and Germany, where we are focused on recovering the existing loans. Our closed markets are Spain and Sweden, where all loans have been repaid to investors. Once the last loans have been repaid, we plan to close the Portuguese market as well.

Loan recoveries: the numbers

Recovering money from defaulted borrowers is an important part of Estateguru’s day-to-day work, especially in the inactive markets. Banks and other lending institutions handle problematic loans in exactly the same way.

To date, we have recovered a total of 70 million euros in principal for investors, of which 7.5 million was in 2025 and 6.3 million in the first half of 2026 (with a further 5.3 million to come, for which agreements have already been signed). This is the result of steady work that involves court proceedings, the realisation of collateral, and cooperation with local partners.

This also requires a financial contribution from Estateguru. In 2025, for example, we invested 1.7 million euros of our own funds into this work, which went towards legal costs, enforcement fees, broker fees, taking over collateral, insurance, managing bankruptcy estates, and other proceedings costs. These costs are part of resolving complex cases and help increase the amount that ultimately reaches investors.

This work often remains invisible until concrete results are achieved, which can create the mistaken impression that nothing is happening. To improve transparency, from 2026 onwards we publish quarterly updates on every problematic loan in the investor’s portfolio view, and we also regularly produce detailed market-by-market overviews such as this one. Detailed information, including stress-testing results, can be found on an ongoing basis on our statistics page.

[Statistics: end of June 2026]

Estonia

Over Estateguru’s 12 years of operation, Estonia has been the best market from a loan-servicing perspective: the portfolio is strong, and the majority of loans have already been repaid or are being repaid on schedule. This reflects the maturity of the market, our long experience, and risk assessment tailored to the local market.

Over the past half-year we have sold collateral from problematic loans and delivered repayments to investors from bankruptcy proceedings. Where there have been occasional delays, they are usually down to overloaded courts. We are also pleased to note that no significant new defaulted loans have been added in Estonia this year.

The Estonian property market rose slightly in the first half of 2026: the housing price index rose 3.4 percent in the first quarter and 5.9 percent year on year (Statistics Estonia). The economy grew for the fourth consecutive quarter (GDP up 2.4 percent in the first quarter), although inflation remains high. Forecasts point to continued growth, which also supports the property market.

Latvia

In recent years, the Latvian property market has been more active than Estonia’s, especially in and around Riga. Demand for new residential property has held steady and household purchasing power has improved, which has also supported the more successful completion of projects. As a result, our volumes in Latvia grew by 12 percent in 2025, and we see strong growth potential here going forward as well.

From a portfolio perspective, a large share of loans has been repaid or is progressing on schedule, and no new defaulted loans have been added this year. Roughly half of Latvia’s problematic loans relate to a single larger project, the Salaspils development (LV0650, LV2357), where the realisation of the collateral is being drawn out by the borrower’s obstruction. The remaining problematic projects are largely on the market, investors have received partial repayments, and the portfolio as a whole is stable.

In risk management, in Latvia we have focused on smaller loan amounts and greater diversification, which allows us to choose projects with a more conservative structure.

Economically, Latvia is moving at a good pace: GDP grew 2.5 percent in the first quarter, and the Bank of Latvia forecasts that strong wage growth will continue (7.7 percent in 2025), which supports consumer confidence and property market activity.

Lithuania

In 2025, Lithuania was the most active property market among the Baltic states, with strong competition for quality projects. In 2025 21.3 million euros was invested in Lithuania through Estateguru, roughly 17 percent more than in 2024, which is also the best result of the past three years. The market’s continued activity is confirmed by the fact that, according to the Centre of Registers of Lithuania, a total of 55,800 property transactions were registered nationwide between January and May 2026 — 6.3 percent more than in the same period last year (52,500 transactions). In May alone, 13,000 transactions were registered, 7.2 percent more than in May last year.

From a portfolio perspective, most loans have been repaid or are progressing on schedule. The problematic cases are mainly older, large-scale projects (typically 3–5 million euros), several of which are in an active sales process. In Lithuania, delays are most often caused by breaches of construction law, which mean that under local law the collateral cannot be sold until the breaches have been remedied. In some cases, disputes over building permits and planning have also lengthened the process. Even so, we expect new agreements on the realisation of collateral this year.

In 2025 we sold three claims with a total value of 5.3 million euros (LT7229, LT2876, LT4782); payment is due in autumn 2026 and everything is proceeding as planned. This sale significantly reduces the total amount of problematic loans in Lithuania.

The sale of the next larger claim is also under way, with payment for it falling largely into next year based on preliminary agreements. A few smaller default cases were also added in the first half of the year; these are usually resolved quickly.

The market outlook is positive: wages grew 8.5 percent last year (Statistics Lithuania), inflation remains below wage growth, and property prices have risen by more than 10 percent in several segments over the year.

Portugal (inactive market)

The full closure of the Portuguese market has been pushed back slightly, because we extended or refinanced the projects of the last borrower at their request. The reason is a delay in obtaining a building permit. All outstanding loans in Portugal are performing in line with their agreements.

Finland (inactive market)

Estateguru issued its first loan in Finland in 2018. Because loan volumes there remained small and borrowers’ payment behaviour did not meet our expectations, we decided not to continue in the market and to focus our attention elsewhere. In hindsight, our entry into the Finnish market coincided with an unfavourable economic cycle: the market environment was affected by a series of shocks, from Russia’s war in Ukraine, the sharp rise in energy prices and high inflation, through to the rapid rise in interest rates, the downturn in the construction sector, and weakening consumer confidence.

The scale of Finland’s economic difficulties is well illustrated by the fact that, according to the International Monetary Fund, Finland’s GDP in 2025 was almost 6.5 percent smaller than had been forecast in 2021. The country’s economy has been the weakest in the euro area since 2020. The construction sector has had a particularly hard time, and according to Statistics Finland the number of corporate bankruptcies rose to a 30-year high in 2025 (more than 3,800 companies), with the construction sector the most affected in absolute terms. This is also a good illustration of the environment for realising collateral: when developers and construction companies are in difficulty, the pool of potential buyers shrinks too.

The property market has also fallen over these years, and the liquidity of several asset types has been low: there is a lot of property on the market, buyers have a wide choice, and selling times are long. According to Statistics Finland, prices fell by roughly 10–12 percent from their peak between 2022 and 2024, and prices for older resale flats were still falling at the start of 2026 (down almost 4 percent year on year). Buyers remain in a strong position, and property market activity has fallen to its 1997 level.

Although the Finnish economy showed signs of recovery at the start of 2026 (according to Statistics Finland, GDP grew 0.9 percent in the first quarter), the Bank of Finland considers the recovery to be fragile and uneven. The growth expectation for 2026 was lowered (the Bank of Finland forecasts GDP growth of 0.8 percent), mainly because of the sharp rise in energy prices caused by the war in Iran. Unemployment remains high, exceeding 10 percent. So while the long-term direction is towards improvement, the near-term environment for realising collateral remains difficult.

At present, in Finland we are dealing solely with recovering loans issued earlier. Sales take place mainly through bailiffs and bankruptcy trustees, supported by a property broker we have engaged. In legal disputes we are represented mainly by our local partner, Magnusson Law. Demand in the market is very low, and the most successful cases are projects that generate their own cash flow. Over the past six months, however, several loans have been resolved, including both positive and negative return examples.

We work continuously to preserve the value of the collateral and, where possible, to increase it. We cover ongoing costs such as heating, electricity, insurance, land taxes and building-rights fees, and, for residential property, a proportional share of the housing associations’ loan obligations. Where necessary, we contribute to additional measures that help make the property more marketable, such as dividing a property into separate apartment units. The aim is to maximise the sale price and the amount that reaches investors, even if this means a longer timeframe.

The main challenges in the Finnish market remain the low activity of the property market, an oversupply relative to demand, and a slow and bureaucratic procedural framework. The law does not set precise deadlines within which bailiffs or bankruptcy trustees must act, and the heavy workload inevitably means long waiting times. Despite this, we are moving steadily forward with the aim of reaching collateral sales through court or bankruptcy proceedings.

Germany (inactive market)

Estateguru was actively operating in Germany between 2020 and 2022. Experience showed that neither borrowers’ payment behaviour nor the development of the property market matched our expectations, and so we decided to stop issuing new loans there.

In hindsight, our activity in Germany fell at a time when the economic environment changed rapidly and unfavourably. The market situation was affected by the wider effects of Russia’s war, changes in Germany’s domestic and immigration policy, the suspension of state accommodation projects, and the effective disappearance of the refinancing market. This left several borrowers in a position where they could not meet their obligations in a sustainable way.

It is important to stress that the difficulties in the German property market are not specific to Estateguru but affect the whole sector. According to a survey conducted by EY-Parthenon in the first quarter of 2026, which included 58 institutions financing real estate in Germany (including large private banks, state banks and savings banks), banks remain cautious about their real estate business, despite the optimism of many market experts. The banks themselves expect the period of weakness to last until 2028, with significant improvement hoped for only from 2029 onwards. In the light of these assessments, it is understandable why resolving problematic loans takes time in our portfolio too.

The structural shift is illustrated above all by the rise in the share of non-performing loans (NPLs): according to EY Real Estate and the European Banking Authority, the NPL ratio for German property loans has risen from 1.5 percent in 2022 to almost 5 percent — more than a threefold increase. EY-Parthenon partner Korbinian Gennies argues that this is not a cyclical deviation but the beginning of a market correction, showing that many obligations are no longer sustainable through traditional refinancing. According to the same survey, refinancing has become banks’ biggest concern: for around half of the institutions, the portion of the portfolio due to be renegotiated in the near term exceeds 40 percent.

Today Germany is an inactive market for us, where we deal solely with recovering loans issued earlier. For problematic loans, we sell the collateral through bailiffs and bankruptcy trustees. In legal disputes we are represented by local partners, and in parallel we work continuously to ensure the collateral retains its value and remains marketable. As in Finland, we cover ongoing costs such as heating, electricity, insurance, land taxes and building-rights fees, and where necessary we contribute to additional measures. The aim is to maximise the sale price and the amount that reaches investors, even when this requires more time and resources.

The slow pace of recovery stems largely from Germany’s extremely bureaucratic and overburdened legal system. Practically every step, from terminating the loan agreement through to the sale, requires the involvement of a court or bailiff, and there are often mandatory waiting periods of 4–6 months between steps. Much of the correspondence takes place on paper, the courts are overloaded, and bad-faith borrowers deliberately use the system to create delays. All of this is amplified by the downturn in the property market, which directly affects both sale prices and the speed of transactions.

It is important to bear in mind that the capital losses seen in Germany are not usually linked to the failure of individual projects but reflect a broader structural shift in the property and credit market. A large share of the loans were issued in 2021–2022, when the interest rate environment was low and expectations of continued market growth were optimistic. The market-value appraisals produced by professional valuers, on the basis of which the loans were arranged, were often optimistic too (Estateguru has never itself produced market-value appraisals of collateral). The same logic is reflected in the general situation of the German market, where commercial property in particular remains under pressure, because asset values today are significantly lower than the amounts used in the original financing.

In today’s environment, the credit market is significantly more conservative: banks finance smaller amounts, require more equity, and are more selective about both projects and asset classes. This directly affects potential buyers’ interest in, and ability to, take over problematic projects, and it means that even for marketable assets the pool of buyers is narrower and reaching transactions takes longer.

The pressure is felt especially in new construction. According to the EY survey, new residential construction remains under particular pressure, because high financing and construction costs and regulatory requirements worsen the profitability of new projects, even though the residential sector is considered relatively stable compared with office and retail space.

Our focus in Germany remains on resolving problematic loans systematically and steadily. So far, 10 defaulted loans have reached a final resolution, and the next 3–4 should be resolved in this half-year. Demand for collateral is unfortunately low, which also brings capital losses. In every case we move forward with the aim of reaching a collateral sale through court or bankruptcy proceedings and recovering as large an amount as possible for investors, even in a difficult and slow market environment.

Spain (inactive market)

All loans issued have been repaid, and we closed the market last year with no capital losses.

In summary

Estateguru’s loan portfolio reflects two parallel directions. In the active Baltic markets — Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — credit quality has remained strong: 97 percent of loans issued since 2023 have either been repaid or are being repaid in line with the agreements. A large share of the problematic loans consists of a handful of older, larger projects, where progress has also been made in recent months. New default cases are usually resolved quickly. Overall, the activity of the property market creates good conditions for continued success.

In the inactive markets we focus steadily on recovering loans issued earlier. In Germany and Finland this is slowed by structural factors, such as an overburdened legal system, bureaucratic procedures and a depressed property market, none of which are within our control. Despite this, we continue to work on all defaulted projects, and in the first half of the year several loans reached a final resolution. The general market situation in these markets has unfortunately also resulted in capital losses.

Whatever the market, our goal is always to maximise the amount that ultimately reaches investors from problematic loans.