It has been a while since the last update, so sorry for that! The world has changed a lot in the interim, as we all know: Russia launched an illegal attack on Ukraine, and Finland, one of the few remaining “neutral” fortresses, is seriously considering an application for NATO membership.
Although the stock market has reacted to the war somewhat negatively, and interest is generally rising, the market, at least in Finland, has stabilized fairly well since the beginning of the war. Joining NATO is considered a smart move from the international investment perspective because there are some major players in the investment markets that explicitly rule out countries that are not in NATO. Time will tell what will actually happen in the investment market.
People have told me that they feel that there is nothing to invest in, that their funds and direct investments in Russia are marked as 100% capital losses in their portfolios. To those people, I always repeat the same mantra: only invest in what you understand and only invest in uncorrelated asset classes. Also, diversify in different cash flow profile businesses and asset classes. Usually, big losses in a portfolio occur because one or more of these principles has been violated. My stock portfolio has gone up 18% since the beginning of the war. And no, I don’t invest in unethical things such as fossil fuels/oil, weapons, or anything like that, ever.
Since the start of the war, we have also seen some lower investment volumes on our platform. I understand that people have concerns, but it’s worth noting that Estateguru’s loans have not suffered any credit loss during that time nor seen an increase in delays. In fact, despite these macroeconomic uncertainties, the default rate in March decreased to 5,0% and is now in line with our long-term target rate.
Compared to fluctuating stocks or big losses in Russian investments, I would say that I feel safe making investments at Estateguru. Also worth mentioning is that all of the countries where Estateguru is fully operative are NATO countries, except for Finland, which, in turn, has one of the strongest armies in Europe and mandatory conscription. So personally and business-wise, I feel really safe.
Now, let’s take a look at the portfolio:
Currently, the monthly cash flow is about €350 – €400 per month. I am happy to see that last Autumn’s investments are starting to show a gradual increase in cash flow every month.
I take a pragmatic view of the situation: in a year or so, I can fully cover the monthly cost of my car just from EG investments. Then I continue building cash flow until I can fully cover my mortgages and other costs.
Currently, 12,88% of the projects in the portfolio are late. As mentioned before, I am not worried about late payments or defaults as I know that we have a strong team dealing with those, and Estateguru does not finance without rock-solid mortgage agreements, etc., so I although I know these things take a lot of time, I am confident they will be repaid later on.
Currently, my biggest exposure is to development loans as I have not ruled out investing in additional stages in Investment Strategies. Also, the country diversification is still Estonia heavy, as at least previously, we had most cases coming from Estonia. Now that Germany especially is increasing its share, I believe that within a year the diversification will look more balanced.
Presently, the portfolio consists of 331 different loans, some of which may of course be in the same projects. From the financial theory perspective, there is no additional benefit of having so many investments, as after 20-25 loans the benefits of diversification are close to the market risk, which means that it’s really marginal.
Some people are asking if I am making manual investments and what kind of Investment Strategy I have. First of all, I don’t do manual investments unless there is too much cash in the account. And here’s what my IS looks like:
So in practical terms, I have ruled almost nothing out.